European Natural Gas: Demand & Storage Tracker: Another heatwave, but milder

Research evidence excerpt

European Natural Gas: Demand & Storage Tracker: Another heatwave, but milder

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

14 July 2026

European Natural Gas: Demand &

Storage Tracker

Another heatwave, but milder

Global Commodities Research

Otar Dgebuadze, CFA

(44-20) 3493-8246

otar.dgebuadze@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Aradhaya Makkar

Demand declines as temperatures rise again... aradhaya.makkar@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

• For the week of July 6-12, total natural gas demand in NWE+UK averaged 300

Mcm/day, 3% lower WoW and 4% lower than the same period last year, driven

by lower residential demand as temperatures increased again, while gas burns

increased only marginally.

• Temperatures increased markedly across the region last week, with CDDs

jumping from 4 to 9 in the wider region and from 2 to 8 in the UK. Following

a volatile start, July weather is still forecast to be well above the historical

normals, or almost 3x stdev warmer than the 10 year average (Figure 1). August

weather forecasts have moderated closer to 10 year normal, however the hot

July still implies one of the hottest summers on the record, comparable to that

in 2022 (Figure 2).

• At the country level, demand declined the most in Germany and Belgium,

followed by other countries on the continent, while demand in the UK was

broadly flat as residential decline was largely offset by an increase in gas burns.

• Month to date in July demand is averaging 294 Mcm/day, 6% lower YoY and

8 Mcm/day lower compared to our forecasts, largely driven by lower gas burns

to date, to which we see risks towards upside as temperatures rise.

Figure 1: TTF region June and July CDD evolution Figure 2: Europe July-August CDDs

CDDs Total CDDs for July, August

270 600