Topband (002139.SZ) 1H26 Preliminary Result A Big Miss; Reiterate Sell/High Risk

Research evidence excerpt

Topband (002139.SZ) 1H26 Preliminary Result A Big Miss; Reiterate Sell/High Risk

w over a seven-year time horizon up to FY30 and then use the WACC to discount back.

Risks

Our default risk rating for stocks such as Chervon with a short trading history (IPO in December 2021) is High Risk; however, we

think a High Risk rating is not justified in this case given the company’s solid financials, global leading position on OPE, strong

global customer base, and long operating history since 1994.

Key downside risks to our target price include higher-than-expected new trade tariffs for the US; worse-than-expected

volume growth if US sets to raise interest rate; market share loss in power tools segment which is the weakest link to the

company.

Key upside risks to our target price include a relief from US reciprocal tariffs on China and Vietnam; better-than-expected

demand for Chervon; and strong share win despite the tariff hike in the US.

Hangzhou Great Star Industrial

(002444.SZ; Rmb28.5; 1; 14 Jul 26; 15:00)

Valuation

We value Great Star at Rmb49 per share based on a ~19x 2026E PE target multiple, which is on par with mean given the return

of a normal cycle from 2026E assuming no further deterioration of US reciprocal tariff policy from 2026E. We project a 3-year-

forward EPS CAGR of 16% through 2028E after slower growth of 9% in 2025E under the US reciprocal tariff. Key drivers

include: 1) GS is likely to deliver teens revenue growth for core hand tools on general maintenance centric in overseas markets

like North America, which is quite resilient; 2) a strong ~50% revenue CAGR to over US$1bn in 2028 for electric power tools

and energy storage system for low base; and 3) plant relocation into ASEAN from China to lower production costs and tariff