Consumer Positioning Update, CPI (+), MDLZ & TSN Previews, BF/B

Research evidence excerpt

Consumer Positioning Update, CPI (+), MDLZ & TSN Previews, BF/B

Briggs Barton - Specialist Sales - US Consumer AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nbriggs.barton@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 14 July 2026

Briggs Barton

+1 212 622 2677

briggs.barton@jpmorgan.com

MORNING UPDATE

US futures are pointing higher with Tech outperforming, Brent >$85 up another 4% as tensions flare in the Middle

East. CPI today is cooler than expected and a net positive [“even better than goldilocks could have imagined” per

JPM Mkt Intel Drew Tyler”] that should help lift Consumer stocks.

Commentary on the US Consumer from bank earnings will be in focus they get into the calls [press release commentary

seems generally constructive]. We also see retail sales trending towards a beat based on card data, and recall the update yday

on our Chase spending data for June and first week of July was bullish here.

While Consumer stocks faded yday [Discretionary/JP2CND closed -65bps, Staples/JP2STP +26bps], there were a

decent amt of stocks in the green for a day where both oil and yields moved higher – this also came as the semis/AI trade

sold off and with positioning remaining at low levels in Consumer [notably, the L/S ratio on our Consumer Discretionary

index down to the 1st %tile over last 12mo and 32nd %tile since ’18], it does continue to feel the group trades better when

the mkt isn’t chasing the shiny objects in Tech [over in TMT as you would expect, L/S ratios on the AI pockets are all 90-

99%tile over the last 1yr]]

Flow color yday from Alex Murphy [Consumer Trading]: Consumer flows quiet yesterday despite the relative sector

outperformance (largely driven by momentum weakness as Semis moved lower in our opinion), though we got busier into