2Q26 Preview: Anticipating Sizeable Financial Beat on Lower Exploration and Oil Price Realization Strength; All Eyes on HSV Appraisal Program

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview: Anticipating Sizeable Financial Beat on Lower Exploration and Oil Price Realization Strength; All Eyes on HSV Appraisal Program

Arun Jayaram AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-8541 14 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

2 MUR is one of the few E&Ps in our coverage universe that has

a differentiated drill-bit proposition compared to its shale peers.

The company has opportunities to grow intrinsic value in

Vietnam, the GoA, and Cote d’Ivoire. We anticipate stable oil

production volumes from the company’s Khaleesi, Mormont,

and Samurai fields over the next few years, and the company’s

2026 outlook should potentially benefit from lower workovers

in GoA and start-up of the LDV field in Vietnam. The company

has undertaken the Murphy 3.0 framework, which should result

YTD 1m 3m 12m in a higher return to shareholders. Against this backdrop and our

Abs 11.7% -10.1% -10.6% 32.0% analytical work, we believe a Neutral rating is justified.

Rel -7.3% -10.5% -21.1% 0.7%

Valuation

Company Data

Our Dec 2026 price target is based on NYMEX strip pricing. Our

Shares O/S (mn) 144

52-week range ($) 43.34-21.86 NAV methodology begins with a DCF of the company’s PDP

Market cap ($ mn) 5,038.90 reserves, adjusted for the company’s operating costs, our

Exchange rate 1.00 commodity price assumptions, and balance sheet items. Our

Free float (%) 93.9%

3M ADV (mn) 1.83 undeveloped valuation is based on a future development

3M ADV ($ mn) 68.1 schedule. Our $42 Dec 2026 price target is based on 100% of our

Volatility (90 Day) 49 NAV estimate.

Index RUSSELL 2000

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 4|11|2

Key Metrics (FYE Dec) Performance Drivers

$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E

Financial Estimates