JPM | US Energy: Oil $86/bbl, IRGC Hits UAE Tankers, Daily SOH Traffic Slows to 11 from 30, Polymarket Odds of "Normal Flows" By YE:56%, Monday Oil Spike Largest Since 2019, XLE>SPY Largest Since Feb, Metals, GOOGL 1.6GW Solar, BEV, OCTG

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | US Energy: Oil $86/bbl, IRGC Hits UAE Tankers, Daily SOH Traffic Slows to 11 from 30, Polymarket Odds of "Normal Flows" By YE:56%, Monday Oil Spike Largest Since 2019, XLE>SPY Largest Since Feb, Metals, GOOGL 1.6GW Solar, BEV, OCTG

Brendan Henrici - Specialist Sales - US Energy AC North America Specialist Sales Feb, Metals, GOOGL 1.6GW

brendan.henrici@jpmorgan.com JPM | US Energy: Oil $86/bbl, IRGC Solar, BEV, OCTG

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Hits UAE Tankers, Daily SOH Traffic 14 July 2026

Slows to 11 from 30, Polymarket J P M O R G A N

Odds of “Normal Flows” By YE:

56%, Monday Oil Spike Largest

Since 2019, XLE>SPY Largest Since

In Brief: Energy & energy products volatility continues this morning with crude extending its two-day advance to nearly 14%

after the US extended its strike campaign to a third day and Iran hit two UAE supertankers overnight (in addition to strikes on

Bahrain and and Jordan). Brent is now hovering at our commodity team’s expected 3Q average price of $86/bbl. As a

reminder, at the end of June I suggested adding to commodity (namely, oil) exposure ahead of 3Q (here). Ahead of the

reimposition of the US blockade this afternoon (4pm), traffic in the Strait has slowed meaningfully. Kpler is reporting just 32

vessel crossings in the Strait over the past three days — roughly 11 per day. This compares to, for context, post-MOU traffic in

the 30 per day range. Embedded in the slowdown in shipments is a near halt in LNG traffic. According to Bloomberg, Qatar has

not sent an LNG shipment through Hormuz since one of its tankers was attacked last week. Polymarket now sees odds of Strait of

Hormuz traffic at “normal” levels by the end of the year as just a coinflip (~56%).

Oil Is Now Aligned With Our Team’s 3Q Average Price Forecast…