June NFIB Optimism Improves Modestly

Research evidence excerpt

June NFIB Optimism Improves Modestly

UpdateM

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points to 97.4 in June, in line with its 6-

month average and modestly higher than its level on"Liberation day". Of the 10 Optimism

Index components, 7 increased, and 3 decreased. Small business optimism has retreated

from its post-election peak of 105.1, but remains well above its 2022-24 average.

Uncertainty decreased, as the index fell 2 points to 89 in June, slightly below its average of

90 in 1Q26 yet still higher than levels seen during COVID. The index has been moving

sideways around 90 in 2026, with no meaningful improvement or worsening observed so

far.

Hiring conditions improved. 32% of small business owners reported unfilled job openings,

up 3 points from May. Meanwhile, 11% planned to increase hiring, up 2 points. Finding

qualified labor continues to be a challenge: the share of firms reporting few or no

qualified applicants was 51%, up 5 points from May.

The former two categories – unfilled positions and hiring intentions – are, in our view, two

important signals about the health of labor market conditions. Hiring intentions have

rebounded modestly after their post-Liberation Day decline and remain broadly in line

with post-COVID averages. Hard-to-fill positions have been on the decline since COVID,

but the series remains above prior cycle peaks, indicating that qualified labor remains

scarce. We suspect this also has something to do with restrictive immigration policies that

have reduced the supply of labor and altered the mix of potential applicants.

Price signals are mixed. The net percentage of owners raising average selling prices rose 2

points to 38%, marking a fourth consecutive month of increases and reaching the highest

level since March 2023.