U.S. FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. FIRST TO MARKET

North America Equity Research

U.S. First to Market 14 July 2026

Top Stories

| Personal Lines 2Q26 Preview (Pablo S. Singzon)

When Too Much of a Good Thing is Bad

Excess margins in personal lines have increased competition, making it difficult for historical outperformers such as PGR to be

differentiated. We are moving from Overweight to Neutral on PGR and affirming our Overweight rating on ALL.

JPM ANMUTH - US Internet 2Q26 Preview (Doug Anmuth)

We’re publishing our US Internet 2Q26 Preview deck ahead of NFLX kicking off Internet earnings this Thursday, 7/16. Our

quarterly presentation includes our views on key discussions & debates across the sector, investor sentiment & expectations, &

overall thoughts across our Internet coverage universe.

AFL | CW | Carpenter Technology (Bennett Moore) (CRS, OW, PT $705.00)

F4Q Preview: Negative Catalyst Watch into Print as Risk/Reward Skews Negative Following Recent

Outperformance; Reit. ‘Core’ OW Holding

Since Apr-1, CRS (+40%) has materially outperformed peer ATI (+22%) and the XME (-7%) in part due to F3Q’s post-

earnings rebound, a cadence seen the past two quarters (more on this below), and net purchases from Russell index

rebalancing (Jun-26). Yet, we and investors we’ve spoken with struggle to pinpoint broader outperformance, leaving us

cautious into the print amid: 1) mix impacts to SAO unit price growth; 2) recent earnings day underperformance; and 3) FY27

guidance expectations.

Mentions

AFL | Insurance Software (Alexei Gogolev)

Examining GWRE and CCC AI Adoption Paths Across the P&C Value Chain

Circle Internet and Coinbase (Kenneth B. Worthington, CFA)

Impact of Hyperliquid USDC Relationship to Weigh on Both CRCL and COIN — The Prisoner’s

Dilemma; Also Marking Models Ahead of 2Q26 EPS