INTERNATIONAL FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL FIRST TO MARKET

North America Equity Research AC Global Equity Research

(1-212) 270-6000 14 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

morganwise@jpmorgan.com

Japan Equity Strategy (Rie Nishihara), Japan

AI market mini rotation and Japan equity strategy

Semiconductor stocks have fallen since peaking in late June, and the past three weeks have looked like a mini correction. Over

the past three weeks (from June 22 through July 10), TOPIX has been roughly flat, while the Nikkei 225 fell 4% and the Nikkei

semiconductor index fell 15%. In global markets, the S&P is also up 1% while semiconductor indices have fallen more than

10% (generally seen as the threshold for a correction), with the SOX down 10% and KOSPI down 18%. We view the selloff in

semiconductor stocks not as a sign of slowing growth in the AI semiconductor market, but as a shift of funds within the AI value

chain, with investors repositioning from AI infrastructure to cloud providers/hyperscalers. Tech stocks came under selling

pressure in Asia (including Japan), but buying in Japan spread to the many laggard sectors outside semiconductors with solid

earnings, leading to broader-based stock selection. We expect such mini rotations in the AI market to recur, lasting anywhere

from several weeks to several months. The long-term growth outlook for the AI semiconductor market is unchanged, but during

these rotations we expect semiconductor stocks will come under pressure, index gains will stay modest, and buying will

broaden to financials and domestic-demand stocks. Given this context, our Japan equity strategy is to selectively hold AI

semiconductor names with earnings growth while increasing exposure to other sectors (AI/financials as the core portfolio, three

non-AI investments: report).