EM FX

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 14 July 2026

RUB Bit of a dull day in usd/rub as 76.65/95 covered just about all of the trades that went through

but it really didn't feel like there was too much interest, either in the on or offshore markets. Not

running much here right now though just about favour a buy on dips approach.

ZAR USDZAR back up to last week’s highs as a Trump imposes a naval blockade, whilst Waller’s

comments last night take a July hike to a 50/50 chance. Not the easiest environment right now

for EMFX, although focus will be on US CPI this afternoon. A strong number here should

result in a break higher in USDZAR through 16.50, which may result in some further position

unwinds. A soft number would of course be welcome, however with Iran/US flaring up again,

the reaction my be muted. We have been short USDZAR but reduced a bit into the number as

the set up is weaker to the topside.

TRY Price action in TRY remains sticky around state-bank offers, currently near 47.0375 (350 pips

adjustment because of the 2 day roll). We saw good sized inflows from real money and

leveraged accounts yesterday. We continue to run long TRY positions, as we believe that no

change in the FX policy framework is likely anytime soon. There also appears to be limited

near-term political pressure on the framework, with political risks contained for now. Early

elections are seen as highly unlikely before late 2027. There are definitely signs that disinflation

process has stalled, but inflation seems more likely to settle around current levels, or edge

slightly lower, than to turn meaningfully higher again. USDTRY remains broadly in line with

the expected depreciation path.