G10 FX Daily Report - 14th July 2026. Tue Jul 14 2026

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX Daily Report - 14th July 2026. Tue Jul 14 2026

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 14 July 2026

G10 FX

EUR Things in Iran really hotting up again and we are certainly starting to question the underlying

TACO assumption that has underpinned recent market comfort – have zero edge here as I am

sure the Truths will continue to flow. The other big update was that of a pretty hawkish Waller

after London walked out which has moved July to 50/50, his comments point to the CPI today

being pivotal for the decision so needless to say the hype is increased. We added some more

GBP dollars to the portfolio yesterday via the CHF leg to insulate the USDJPY shorts over CPI (more

below).

Rhine droughts are taking the oxygen for EUR news flow this morning as this can be pretty

burdensome for German GDP, SHF continued their sell streak (now 14) while this was offset by

corporate demand in our franchise yesterday. 1.1340 (fibo) remains the level to watch over the

data later while if we start to squeeze on cooler figures I would not have much interest before

the 1.15 handle to start fading.

For sterling Andy Burnham has mathematically been confirmed as PM with MP support of 349

so the coronation will proceed on the 20th July and we will get more colour on policy and

personal – as I have been writing risk reward here for me is more negative going forward after

the ‘not so bad’ relief enjoyed by UK assets. We have Bailey speaking at Mansion House later -

he has been more on the dovish side of late focusing on the softer labour market. Remain long

EURGBP here 0.8470/0.86 levels to watch, 1.3325/ 1.35 for cable, SHF buy streak continued (to