National Fuel Gas: FY3Q26 Preview: Back on Track

Research evidence excerpt

National Fuel Gas: FY3Q26 Preview: Back on Track

ates of 25–30+ MMcf/d. Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Sep)

Adj. EPS ($)

On the quarter, we anticipate a relatively in-line operational print, with our F3Q 2025A 2026E 2027E

EPS slightly above the STe after our mark-to-market. We expect production to Q1 1.66 2.04A 2.16

Q2 2.39 2.58A 2.66

increase sequentially to 108.1 Bcfe (+6% QoQ), which compares to the STe of Q3 1.64 1.45 1.23

108.9 Bcfe. On pricing, we estimate a F3Q26 hedged natural gas price realization Q4 1.22 1.30 1.06

of $2.83 per Mcf, which compares to the NYMEX settlement price of $2.89 per FY 6.91 7.37 7.10

Mcf. We estimate F3Q26 EPS of $1.45, which is just ahead of the STe at $1.42. We

Style Exposure

model EBITDA of $337 MM, which is 1% ahead of the STe at $333 MM. We are

modeling $284 MM of F3Q26 capex, which compares to the STe of $266 MM,

though we note that our higher forecast appears to be timing-related.

For FY26, we forecast 433 Bcfe of volumes and $1.05 B of capex vs. the STe of

433 Bcfe and $1.08 B of capex. After marking-to-market for recent strip pricing,

our FY26 EPS estimate moves to $7.37, which compares to the STe at $7.34. On

the F2Q print, NFG revised its FY26 EPS guidance 3% lower to $7.45-$7.75,

driven by a lower NYMEX assumption of $3.00 per Mcf for the remaining six

months of FY26 (vs. $3.75 per Mcf prior) and the 3% reduction in production

guidance. We note that NFG’s EPS guidance range utilizes an adjusted share count

of 91.3 MM and excludes the shares issued in a Dec 2025 private placement to

finance the pending acquisition of CNP’s OH LDC asset ($350 MM in shares),

which is expected to close in 4Q calendar 2026. Our EPS estimate of $7.37 is based

on the fully diluted share count of 94.8 MM; adjusting our estimate to the adjusted