China Economics: AI Supercycle Powers a Structural Export Upswing

Research evidence excerpt

China Economics: AI Supercycle Powers a Structural Export Upswing

China Economics

14 July 2026 Citi Research

China’s exports and imports both strengthened markedly in June. Export growth

exceeded expectations at 27.0% YoY (Citi/market: 18.0%/19.0%), accelerating for a

third consecutive month. Imports also outpaced expectations, surging 36.0% YoY

(Citi/market: 25.0%/26.1%). As a result, the trade surplus widened to US$125.6bn,

the largest since January 2025. Outbound shipments expanded 20.2% YoY in

2Q26, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters, while import growth reached

29.5% YoY, the strongest since 3Q21. In 26H1, exports registered robust growth of

17.6% YoY, compared with 5.5% in 2025, while imports advanced even more rapidly

by 26.6% YoY after remaining broadly flat last year. With imports outperforming

exports, the trade surplus narrowed modestly to US$576bn in 1H26, from

US$583bn in 25H1.

The export outperformance was mainly driven by robust demand for AI hardware

and surging semiconductor prices, while strong energy-transition demand also

bolstered China’s green-tech exports.

n By partner, the improvement was broad-based, with ASEAN providing the

largest boost. Shipments to ASEAN accelerated to their fastest pace since

March 2023 (Jun: 34.5% vs. May:24.3%) and remained the biggest contributor

to headline growth. Likely supported by surging air-conditioner shipments amid

Europe’s heatwave, exports to the EU quickened to a four-month high (18.5% vs.

7.6%), with those to Germany jumping notably (27.2% vs. 16.7%). Shipments to

Africa (28.0% vs. 18.6%) and Latam (28.4% vs. 6.1%) also strengthened. Tech-

heavy destinations continued to exhibit buoyant demand, with exports to South

Korea remaining elevated (42.6% vs. 42.1%) and those to Taiwan gaining further