2Q TS supportive – Realisations ahead and downstream better than pre-guide

Research evidence excerpt

2Q TS supportive – Realisations ahead and downstream better than pre-guide

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

14 July 2026

BP Neutral

BP.L, BP/ LN

2Q TS supportive – Realisations ahead and Price (13 Jul 26):505p

downstream better than pre-guide Price Target (Jun-27):550p

Our Take – Strong. Key trading statement metrics point to upside to 2Q JPMe/ European Oil & Gas

ACconsensus, which had NI in a $3.5-4.0bn range. This follows an also strong(er) Matthew Lofting, CFA

statement from Shell last week. The main variables are: 1) Stronger realisations. (44-20) 7134-6301

Capture screens ahead of regular course price sensitivity (rule-of-thumb) matthew.lofting@jpmorgan.com

references owing to larger price lag catch-ups from Feb/Mar (eg: OPO division: Tianyu Wu

+$1.8-2.1bn vs. JPMe +$1.6bn); 2) Downstream screens ahead of the prior (44-20) 3493-1281

guidance issued following 1Q results on both refining and customers, eg, we tianyu.wu@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

estimate the refining realisation discount to indicator to be nearer $3 than prior $5+

commentary; 3) Trading performance remains robust, especially oil/liquids small Specialist Sales contact details:

up q/q on an already exceptional 1Q (JPMe stronger than average but allowered for

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales -

lower q/q). This means core net debt is guided lower q/q ($22-23bn vs $25bn 1Q) European Energy

inclusive of hybrid/GoA Macondo payments, which compares to JPMe flat (44-20) 7134-1356

sequentially. We expect the shares to be supported today, driven also by this week’s ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

Middle East-led move higher on oil.

• Noteworthy Areas: 1) Trading & Optimisation– gas flat q/q, liquids

slightly higher than an already exceptional 1Q. Gas trading is guided to be