Personal Lines 2Q26 Preview: When Too Much of a Good Thing is Bad

Research evidence excerpt

Personal Lines 2Q26 Preview: When Too Much of a Good Thing is Bad

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

14 July 2026

Personal Lines 2Q26 Preview

When Too Much of a Good Thing is Bad

Excess margins in personal lines have increased competition, making it difficult Insurance - Life & Nonlife

ACfor historical outperformers such as PGR to be differentiated. We are moving from Pablo S. Singzon

Overweight to Neutral on PGR and affirming our Overweight rating on ALL. (1-212) 622-2295

pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.com

• Premium growth for personal lines market to slow, reflecting a more Kevin Wijendra

competitive environment. After spiking to as high as the mid-teens range (1-212) 622-7054

during the post-COVID years, personal auto premium growth began slowing kevin.wijendra@jpmorgan.com

in 2024, while homeowners’ premium growth began to decelerate in 2025. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

After implementing corrective actions in the post-COVID years, personal lines

insurers have shown a greater willingness to reduce prices, partly to win more

new business but also to counteract higher-than-average customer shopping. In

2025, personal auto premiums grew +3% while homeowners’ premiums rose

+10%. In 1Q26, both lines decelerated from 2025, with personal auto

premiums declining 1% while homeowners’ premiums growing +7%. In

personal auto, PGR continues to gain the most market share, but at a declining

rate. In the smaller homeowners’ insurance market, ALL and the mutual

insurers (State Farm, USAA, Liberty, Farmers) are gaining the most share.

• Unsustainably strong margins are the root cause of elevated competition.

In 2025, the industry combined ratio for personal auto was 91% (versus the

long-term average of 101%), while the combined ratio for homeowners’ was