INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 14, 2026

20 SECONDS:

• Odds that SoH returns to normal by year-end dropped to 56% (vs 90% in late June) but incentives

and constraints on both sides suggest this latest flare up can give way to another push for

talks

• Broadening has so far been resilient to Geopolitics because the growth/earnings impact of Oil has

diminished. Rates have reacted more because damaged refining capacity is increasing the risk

of miscalculating inflationary consequences.

• Tech/AI & Momentum are more important for Equities than US vs Iran. The technical/positioning

driven correction may be approaching late-stage given factor drawdown, drop in equity funding

costs & reduction in HF exposure to Momentum.

• The fundamentals of the AI narrative remain solid but the moves across hyperscalers’ CDS is

notable. Imo, a reasonable guess for equilibrium is that frontier models are used for more advanced

tasks while the routine is handled by specialized/localized models. By doing so, companies can also

solve for the sovereignty campaigned by Alex Karp

• Notable moves in Japan Rates as Katayama floats JGBs in tax-free accounts and GPIF portfolio

review. Models point at 37-bp increase in US yield for every $100bn reduction in Japanese Treasury

holdings.

• Catalysts: US CPI (scenario analysis below). Q2 earnings kick off in US with large banks. Fed Chair

Warsh testifies before House Financial Services Committee. UK’s Reeves and Bailey deliver a

speech.

MKT INTEL VIEWS: Mixed US/EU futures but Asia now broadly in the green after a weak start. Tech

continues to be the standout pressure point with heavy volumes especially on names with multiple

levered ETFs. It still feels like moves are very mechanical. I would still play XAU via options while