Singapore: Growth momentum unbowed, unbent, unbroken: GDP powered ahead in 2Q despite Middle-East conflict

Research evidence excerpt

Singapore: Growth momentum unbowed, unbent, unbroken: GDP powered ahead in 2Q despite Middle-East conflict

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

14 July 2026

Singapore: Growth momentum

unbowed, unbent, unbroken

GDP powered ahead in 2Q despite Middle-East conflict

Economic Research

Siddharth Jamad

(65) 6807-5503

siddharth.jamad@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

Growth remained robust in 2Q…: According to the flash 2Q GDP report

released today (14 July), Singapore's year-ago growth remained robust at 5.7%oya

in 2Q26, slowing only modestly from an upwardly-revised 6.3% (previously 6%)

pace in 1Q26 and beating expectations (J.P. Morgan and consensus: 5.5%oya). In

sequential terms, GDP advanced at 4.6%q/q, saar—only a slight moderation from

its torrid 5.2% annualized pace over the previous two quarters and close to our

5%ar forecast (Table 1, Figure 1).

… driven by a rebound in the goods, while services growth moderated after

an exceptional 1Q outturn: The 1Q upward revision, which drove today’s upside

year-ago growth surprise, was largely concentrated in the trade-related services

cluster. This sector—mainly comprising of wholesale trade besides transport and

storage—expanded at a stronger 14.8%ar (previously 10.2%ar), buoyed by both a

domestic and regional (tech) export boom. Meanwhile, manufacturing contracted

at 8.4%ar in 1Q amid an unwinding of the earlier pharma surge.

Following this brief hangover, however, manufacturing momentum rebounded to

23.1%ar last quarter—close to its robust 2H25 pace—with the sequential rebound

lifting its year-ago growth to a cycle-high of 12.2%oya (Figure 2). Meanwhile,

construction spending fell at 8%ar, but with the strong surge in 1Q, it was still up

a robust 12.5%ar for 1H26 as a whole.