Carrefour (Neg CW), EU Airlines, Remy, UK Gen Retail, ...: EU Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary Retail • Luxury • Staples • Leisure • Airlines

Research evidence excerpt

Carrefour (Neg CW), EU Airlines, Remy, UK Gen Retail, ...: EU Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary Retail • Luxury • Staples • Leisure • Airlines

Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales - European Consumer AC (44-20) 3493-3709 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nolivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 14 July 2026

Carrefour (Neg CW), EU Airlines, Remy, UK Gen Retail, ...

Olivia Petronilho

+44 207 134 2676

olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com

Morning all,

Main Highlights for Today:

• Carrefour. The Low-Bar Trap - Reiterate UW & Neg CW

• EU Airlines: Anchoring the Trends

• Previews: Remy

• Data & Laterals: UK June Retail Sales, Watches of Switzerland cur trading

• TODAY: Nothing

• TOMORROW: Richemont Q1 Sales

In details

Borja reiterates the UW on Carrefour and Neg CW into 1H26. While the bar has been lowered, he sees this as a potential trap

into the print. Share outperformance and investor positioning imply a positive inflection in the equity story, whilst in turn, his

analysis suggests that 1H26 might turn out to be a downgrade event. Looking back at the last few sets of interim results, the team

notes Carrefour has had a tendency to miss expectations. And, given they sit significantly below cons heading into 1H26, they

again see a risk of disappointment, the need for expectations to reset, and the risk of guidance becoming (yet again) compromised

– this is still the case even after severe downgrades to St expectations into the print. Against this potential outcome, shares have

outperformed +17% YTD & +35% in 12M, benefiting from the market rotation into defensives, in what Borja perceives as an

asymmetric risk-reward. The note here has all the detailed expectations by region and for the group.

EU Airlines - Anchoring the Trends.