British Land Operational strength continues: 1Q27 First Take

Research evidence excerpt

British Land Operational strength continues: 1Q27 First Take

Neil Green, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4478 14 July 2026 C A Z E N O V E

neil.d.green@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

British Land (Neutral; Price Target: 430p)

Investment Thesis

British Land offers diversified exposure to UK (predominantly London) property with a

portfolio predominantly exposed to offices and retail parks, plus urban logistics. The group

is embarking on its regeneration of Canada Water - with development now underway. We

expect growing macro-economic uncertainty and projections for higher interest rates in the

UK to weigh on the outlook for capital values, while sector-wide headwinds around the cost

of capital is another issue being faced, although British Land’s balance sheet appears

relatively well positioned.

Valuation

Our Dec-27 price target for British Land is based on our total returns-based European

Valuation Model, which takes into account whether a company creates or destroys value.

We argue that companies that have a positive spread between returns and their weighted

average cost of capital (WACC) should trade at a premium to NNAV, whereas those with

a negative spread should be priced below NNAV. We apply this spread to the invested

capital, discount back and add/subtract to our NNAV forecast to derive our price target.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

We believe the key risks to the downside for British Land include a spike in bond yields

without the ability to pass through higher inflation. Another wave of retail closures, CVAs

and decline in retail sales would also be a negative. On the office side, if vacancy rates rise

and demand for office space declines this also presents downside risk. Upside risks include