LATAM FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM FIRST TO MARKET

Latin America Equity Research

LatAm First to Market 14 July 2026

Top Stories

Mexico Industrial Real Estate (Adrian E Huerta)

Vacancies Drift, With Supply Re-Expanding. A Trough Could Be Near

Market trends deteriorated further in 2Q, with vacancies essentially at all-time highs, but with ~55% of the markets

posting flat or lower vacancies. This quarter’s drag came as much from supply as from demand, as pipelines re-

expanded following the USMCA’s move into annual reviews. Demand remains constrained by tariff uncertainty, with border

markets like Tijuana and Reynosa posting negative net absorption, while Mexico City and Guadalajara held steadier, with

national absorption reaching a new low of 0.6% of total inventory (3.3% on a LTM). Vacancies reached 6.8% (+0.2pp q/q) —

near the ~7.0% record set in 2Q15— led sequentially by Tijuana (+1.9pp), Mexico City (+1.0pp), and Reynosa (+0.5pp), while

Monterrey, Juárez, Saltillo, and Querétaro all improved. Asking rents fell -0.2% q/q, the third consecutive soft quarter, with

border markets the notable softeners while Tier 3 markets (Vesta and FMTY with the largest exposure) posted small increases.

Importantly, the key overhang has shifted from anticipation to negotiation after the U.S. declined to renew the USMCA in its

current form, moving it into an annual review —constructive enough to preserve Mexico’s trade advantage, but short of the

clean resolution needed to unlock pent-up northern demand in the short-term. Among listed players, NEXT remains best

positioned via its MCMA + Toluca concentration, while names with outsized northern border exposure carry the most risk; the

~25% gap between market and reported rents should continue to support modest rent growth even as headline asking prices

plateau.