Mondelez International, Inc.: 2Q26 Preview - Steamy Weather in Europe and Rising Cocoa Futures Add a Hint of Uncertainty, But Earnings Recovery Likely Remains on Track

Research evidence excerpt

Mondelez International, Inc.: 2Q26 Preview - Steamy Weather in Europe and Rising Cocoa Futures Add a Hint of Uncertainty, But Earnings Recovery Likely Remains on Track

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

14 July 2026

Mondelēz International, Inc.

2Q26 Preview - Steamy Weather in Europe and Rising Overweight

Cocoa Futures Add a Hint of Uncertainty, But Earnings MDLZ, MDLZ US

Recovery Likely Remains on Track Price (13 Jul 26):$59.86

Price Target (Dec-27):$70.00

Mondelez (MDLZ - Overweight) will likely report 2Q26 earnings on Tuesday, July Food Producers & Retailers

AC28. For 2Q, we model organic sales growth and EPS slightly above consensus. We Thomas Palmer, CFA

look for upside in emerging markets to offset any weakness from developed (1-212) 622-5582

markets (e.g., hot weather in Europe). We think the annual outlooks for OSG (+0- thomas.palmer@jpmorgan.com

2%) and EPS (+0-5% constant FX) are likely safe, though we think MDLZ could Brandon Cohen, CPA

point to an incrementally more 4Q-weighted 2H outlook, in part due to the timing (1-212) 622-4168

of cocoa deflation taking hold. The recent run up in cocoa is worth watching - it brandon.cohen@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

could have implications for COGS inflation later in 2027 if it holds. But if anything,

it could provide incremental help to 2026 in that it reduces the threat of price

investments by private label chocolate in Europe (shorter hedges). We think Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

MDLZ remains one of better positioned food stocks for 2026 and beyond. Adj. EPS ($)

2025A 2026E 2027E

• Our estimates are little changed overall. 2Q26 remains $0.69, FY26 goes to Q1 0.74 0.67A 0.84

$3.06 from $3.07, and FY27 remains $3.39. We establish a December 2027 Q2 0.73 0.69 0.76

Q3 0.73 0.79 0.86