BHP/RIO/Capstone: May Cochilo data: Mantoverde set for a strong June quarter; Escondida and Mantos solid; Spence needs a strong finish

Research evidence excerpt

BHP/RIO/Capstone: May Cochilo data: Mantoverde set for a strong June quarter; Escondida and Mantos solid; Spence needs a strong finish

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

14 July 2026

BHP/RIO/Capstone

May Cochilo data: Mantoverde set for a strong June

quarter; Escondida and Mantos solid; Spence needs a

strong finish

RIO and BHP are due to report quarterly production on Wednesday/Thursday this Australia

week. The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) data through to May

Head of Australia Metals & Mining

highlights: 1) Escondida copper output looks solid, with May output the highest

month of the half year – our 4Q26 estimates look easily achieveable assuming Lyndon Fagan AC

another consistent June performance. 2) Spence is showing positive momentum (61-2) 9003-8648

lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

but off a relatively low base; production has been below FY25 levels, and a strong J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

June month is needed to hit out 4Q26E (albeit the revised guidance looks safe). 3) Jonathon Sharp

Capstone should enjoy a very solid Mantoverde result with May improving (61 2) 9003-8312

marginally on a very strong April result; 2Q26 should beat our forecast, while jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

Mantos looks in-line (Mantos Blancos Phase II PFS is expected in 3Q 2026). We J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

remain OW rated on BHP, RIO and CSC based on a positive medium-term copper Branko Skocic

view and undemanding valuation metrics. We see the current pullback in copper (61-3) 9633-4069

equities as a good entry point. CSC reports on July 30. branko.skocic@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

Devwrat Vegad

(91-22) 6157-3608

devwrat.vegad@jpmchase.com

Figure 1: BHP, RIO, CSC copper mines captured in Cochilo monthly data reporting J.P.