Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521) | Japan: Catalyst Driven Idea

Research evidence excerpt

Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521) | Japan: Catalyst Driven Idea

Idea

July 14, 2026 01:06 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MKaken Pharmaceutical (4521) | Japan Jaeheon Lee

Equity Analyst

Catalyst Driven Idea Jaeheon.Lee@morganstanleymufg.comShinichiro Muraoka +81 3 6836-8443

Shinichiro.Muraoka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5424

We highlight domestic Ph3 detailed findings for KP-001

(vascular malformation) due on Jul 17. Market expectations of

the drug are low, and we think confirmation of good outcomes

could boost both stock market conviction and expectations for

the US market. Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521.T, 4521 JP)

What and when is the catalyst? Detailed Ph3 outcomes for Kaken's KP-001 (vascular Pharmaceuticals | Japan

Stock Rating Overweight

malformation) are due to be presented at the Japanese Society for the Study of

Industry View In-Line

Vascular Anomalies conference (JSSVA 2026) being held on Jul 16-17. We expect this Price target ¥5,300

Up/downside to price target (%) 39

to be during the morning General Session 4 on Jul 17, when Kaken is also due to hold Shr price, close (Jul 13, 2026) ¥3,810

a small meeting in the evening. Domestically, rival Rapalimus launched in 2021 but Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥145.4

Div yld (03/27e) (%) 5.0

sales have struggled due to safety issues including a high (~90%) incidence of

Fiscal Year Ending 03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

stomatosis. If KP-001 Ph3 trials replicated the good balance of efficacy and safety

Revenue, net (¥bn) 76.9 89.0 93.2 82.9

observed in Ph2, we think this would be positive. We also think good domestic Ph3 Operating profit (¥bn)* (0.9) 8.2 10.6 3.3

outcomes would help raise expectations of Ph3 trials currently underway in the US. Recurring profit (¥bn)* (0.2) 8.9 11.3 4.0