Key Focus of Upcoming Apr-Jun Results (Mid-cap Pharma / Generics)

Research evidence excerpt

Key Focus of Upcoming Apr-Jun Results (Mid-cap Pharma / Generics)

Idea

July 23, 2026 03:57 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MPharmaceuticals | Japan Jaeheon Lee

Equity Analyst

Key Focus of Upcoming Apr-Jun Jaeheon.Lee@morganstanleymufg.comShinichiro Muraoka +81 3 6836-8443

Shinichiro.Muraoka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5424

Results (Mid-cap Pharma /

Generics)

We expect Kaken and Tsumura shares to rise following 1Q

Pharmaceuticals

results. For Santen, the stock could reach an inflection point Japan

Industry View In-Line

depending on sales trends for Upneeq (ptosis), and we continue

to watch developments closely. Among generics, we continue to

prefer Towa given reassurance over earnings.

Key Takeaways

Results: We expect few surprises in Apr-Jun results. Apr-Jun lacked major patent

expiries too. Expect strong OP results at Kaken, Tsumura, Santen, Towa.

New drugs: Focus on sales trends for Santen's Upneeq (ptosis). Also look for

litigation developments on Nippon Shinyaku's Deramiocel cell therapy and the

FDA approval decision (Aug 22).

Share buybacks: We expect limited corporate actions at the time of 1Q results.

We believe Sumitomo Pharma is likely to resume dividend payments after 2Q

results.

1Q overview: The 1Q F3/27 results season for mid-cap pharmas will begin with

Sumitomo Pharma on Jul 31. We expect earnings at these firms to generally track

steadily/broadly in line with market expectations. From the perspective of earnings

progress, we favor Kaken. In terms of YoY profit growth, we highlight Tsumura. We

also see upside risk to our forecasts for Sumitomo Pharma, reflecting sales of the

prostate cancer drug Orgovyx and lower-than-expected costs. Among generics, we

continue to recommend Towa, supported by stable earnings growth driven by