US Treasury Market Daily: CPI preview/unwind 10s/30s flatteners

Research evidence excerpt

US Treasury Market Daily: CPI preview/unwind 10s/30s flatteners

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

13 July 2026

US Treasury Market Daily

CPI preview/unwind 10s/30s flatteners

• Front-end Treasury yields rose 6bp and the curve flattened by 3bp following Fixed Income Strategy

AC further escalation in geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed commentary; Gov Jay Barry

Waller stated that the Fed may need to tighten the policy stance “in the near (1-212) 834-4951

term” if core inflation pressures remain elevated in tomorrow’s CPI print john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com

• We recommend unwinding 10s/30s flatteners ahead of event risk over the next Jason(1-212) 270-0034Hunter AC

two days in the form of CPI tomorrow as well as Chair Warsh’s inaugural jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com

testimony in front of Congress. While we still think curves appear too steep, we

Harry Downie

think much of this divergence stems from the ongoing rise in long-end JGB (1-212) 270-9500

yields harry.j.downie@jpmorgan.com

• Looking ahead to tomorrow, we expect a 0.16% fall in CPI-U nsa for June, Liam L Wash

which is softer than consensus and inflation fixings, which expect prices fell (1-212) 834-5230

0.13% and 0.11%, respectively. Given our tactically bearish view on CPI, we liam.wash@jpmchase.com

maintain our 1Yx1Y/2Yx3Y zero-coupon inflation swap steepeners into the Amanda Berke

print (1-212) 834-5739

amanda.berke@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Statistics for various on-the-run Treasury yields, curve spreads, and TIPS

breakevens

1d chg WTD chg QTD chg YTD chg

Close (bp) (bp) (bp) (bp) 3m avg 3m low 3m high 3m pctl.

4wk 3.65 3.0 3.0 2.0 12.9 3.60 3.55 3.65 100%

8wk 3.67 1.0 1.0 -0.5 12.0 3.63 3.58 3.68 85%

13wk 3.77 3.5 3.5 0.3 18.2 3.7 3.60 3.77 100%

17wk 3.84 2.6 2.6 2.6 26.1 3.70 3.63 3.84 100%