Daily Economic Briefing: Objects in mirror are closer than they appear

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: Objects in mirror are closer than they appear

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

13 July 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

Objects in mirror are closer than they appear

Economic and Policy Research

Maia Crook

(1-212) 622-8435

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• We believe that the next move from the Fed will be a hike but have not Nora(44-20)Szentivanyi7134-7544

anticipated a move this year. However, we have emphasized that if incoming nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

data run hotter than the Fed’s June SEP expectations for 2H26 — which J.P. Morgan Securities plc

incorporates a stable 4.3% unemployment rate and a roughly 0.22% average Alex Gallin

core PCE price increase — then Fed hikes will likely come this year. Governor (1-212) 270-5492

Waller's speech today reinforced this message. While emphasizing a baseline alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

view of stable policy based on a still “credible case for inflation to begin to fall JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

back to our 2 percent goal with policy at its current setting,” he also noted that Joseph Lupton

“I am concerned about the equally plausible case that data in the coming weeks (1-212) 834-5735

will show that inflation will remain at its elevated level or even trend higher, joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

requiring tighter monetary policy in the near term.” This assessment extends

Waller’s earlier pivot, but his message of urgency that “inflation and monetary

policy are at a crossroads” is a surprise from someone whose dot was likely on

hold for 2026 in June.

• Incoming June CPI reports across the globe show relief on energy prices while

core remains sticky. We expect this message to be reflected in tomorrow’s US

CPI, in which headline prices are expected to drop -0.2%m/m, while core