JPM Credit Card Trust Tracker: June 2026 Preview

Research evidence excerpt

JPM Credit Card Trust Tracker: June 2026 Preview

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

13 July 2026

JPM Credit Card Trust Tracker

June 2026 Preview

We are previewing the June 2026 monthly credit card master trust data (which we Consumer Finance

ACanticipate will be released Wednesday, July 15). We expect early DQs to remain flat Richard Shane

& total DQs to improve modestly M/M, primarily driven by the denominator effect (1-415) 315-6701

of higher balances. We expect NCOs to improve M/M across issuers. Historically richard.b.shane@jpmorgan.com

in June, card balance growth moderates M/M compared to May, with spending Hong Zhang

beginning to level off into the summer months. However, Chase Spending Data¹ (1-212) 622-6416

showed total spending growth in June accelerated to ~6.0% Y/Y (through June 30), hongliang.zhang@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

up from ~5.3% in May, with the pickup driven primarily by higher discretionary

spending (6.4% in June vs. 5.0% in May). Spending has remained elevated in

recent months even amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. The authors wish to thank Prakhar Rai, of

As a result, we expect asset balance growth may outperform historical seasonality the J.P. Morgan Global Research Center,

(click here for our Chase Spending note and here for disclaimers and

for contributions to this report.

methodology).

• NCOs expected to improve across issuers. In the last 10 years, the NCO rate

for the JPM Trust Tracker Index has averaged 18bps of improvement in June.

Based on historical trends, we expect NCOs to improve 9bps for AMXCA

(AXP) and 18bps for COMET (COF).

• Early DQs remain flat, total DQ to improve modestly M/M across issuers.

Historically, delinquencies tend to improve in June, driven by a denominator