China Auto Industry: Preview and implications of 2Q26 earnings; d/g SAIC, GAC to UW

Research evidence excerpt

China Auto Industry: Preview and implications of 2Q26 earnings; d/g SAIC, GAC to UW

in 1H26, we Cathy Liu

project domestic PV demand will largely stay around or below seasonality in (852) 2800-8629

2H26 although the yearly decline should narrow to around -10%. Focus in the cathy.xiao.liu@jpmorgan.com

domestic market is relative growth of NEV after penetration topped a record J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/

63% in June. OEMs with competitive NEV offerings will likely weather J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

domestic headwinds better than peers, e.g. BYD, XPeng and Leapmotor. Rebecca Wen

These could see positive stock reaction to new launches or subsequent sales- (852) 2800-8505

through in 2H26. 2) Outside China, the narrative is completely opposite and rebecca.y.wen@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/

very positive; we believe all the main Chinese OEMs’ overseas volume J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

guidance will be proven too conservative or see ~20-50% upside. Overseas Shirley Feng

market will make up ~30-50% of key OEMs’ revenue in 2026. (86-21) 6106-6149

• Two events to watch in 3Q26: 1) We believe 2Q/1H earnings results in mid- shirley.x.feng@jpmorgan.com

late Aug should mostly miss (in particular for SOEs), with a few meets (BYD) SAC Registration Number: S1730524040001

and beats (Geely and Nio). Competitive product mix and solid overseas growth J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company

will be crucial to support OEMs’ profitability. 2) Geopolitically, whilst not our Limited

base case at this point, we would watch for any incremental policy shifts on the

US side on China’s auto industry post the next Trump-Xi meeting tentatively

scheduled for late-Sept. Outside the US, the EU’s potential proposal to impose