Bank of Canada Preview: The more things change...

Research evidence excerpt

Bank of Canada Preview: The more things change...

J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research

13 July 2026

Bank of Canada Preview: The

more things change...

• We expect the BoC to again leave the policy rate unchanged at 2.25% Economic and Policy Research

• Core CPI remained subdued in May, and oil prices have eased; little Michael S Hanson

evidence of the broadening that the BoC flagged as its threshold for (1-212) 622-8603

michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com

tightening

Bennett Parrish

• While the oil shock is fading, downside from trade policy has intensified (1-212) 622-9003

• With the economy still operating below capacity, we see the BoC on hold bennett.parrish@jpmchase.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NA

for the rest of the year

When the Bank of Canada meets this week, we expect no change in policy and

limited updates to their implied guidance. While the mix of risks to the outlook has

shifted somewhat since the last meeting, we expect the assessment of elevated

uncertainty to remain. We also expect the BoC to continue to stress it will deliver

price stability. That said, core measures of inflation appear benign, and even with

the recent improvement in labor market data, we expect the Governing Council to

once again conclude that the economy is experiencing excess supply—although

that concern may be less prominent than earlier this year. All told, we continue to

anticipate that the BoC will hold rates steady for the remainder of this year.

We see the incoming data as reinforcing the case for remaining on hold in the near

year. Oil prices have come down meaningfully from their highs in late April, and

while the outlook for the ceasefire remains unstable, risks for a larger or more

sustained energy shock have abated. Moreover, there continues to be relatively