South Bow Corporation: Thoughts into 2Q26: Strong Results Expected; All Eyes on Prairie Connector Execution

Research evidence excerpt

South Bow Corporation: Thoughts into 2Q26: Strong Results Expected; All Eyes on Prairie Connector Execution

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

13 July 2026

South Bow Corporation Underweight

SOBO, SOBO US

Thoughts into 2Q26: Strong Results Expected; All Eyes Price (10 Jul 26):$36.12

on Prairie Connector Execution ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$34.00 Prior (Dec-26):$32.00

After speaking with the company (including at the JPM Natural Resources

Conference) and updating our model, we forecast 2Q26 adj EBITDA of $265mm. Head of North America Power,

Utilities, Midstream, LNG, andThe result compares to a $253mm Street median and $258mm prior JPMe. Strong

Nuclear

export demand drove elevated throughput on Marketlink early in 2Q26, with

Marketing also capitalizing on Houston-Hardisty spread widening. Prairie Jeremy Tonet, CFA AC

Connector progress continues after SOBO confirmed a JV with Bridger to jointly (1-212) 622-4915

jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

acquire Liberty Pipeline ROW from Tallgrass. The partnership targets a permit

Vrathan Reddy

revision from 24-inch to 36-inch, creating a largely permitted corridor from

(1-212) 622-4692

Hardisty to Cushing and beyond (though more work to be done here). Management vrathan.reddy@jpmchase.com

targets mid-2027 FID and ISD by year-end 2028/early 2029, with construction Eli Jossen, CFA

sequenced to prioritize the Canada-to-Guernsey segment to mitigate political (1-212) 622-4113

transition risk. Sovereign backstopping and DOE loan guarantees at the JV level eli.jossen@jpmchase.com

remain the primary risk mitigation levers ahead of sanctioning. Separately, Francina Kolluri

following first oil at Blackrod and IPC tracking ahead of schedule, we expect an (1-212) 270-5796

update on phase 2 discussions alongside results.