Silver Sunset: Top EU TMT Talking Points Today - Let‘s Discuss

Research evidence excerpt

Silver Sunset: Top EU TMT Talking Points Today - Let‘s Discuss

erm EUV capacity (buyside sits at €40bn of revenue and €32 EPS). While there is a growing view,

particularly among US investors, that ASML’s previously communicated ~90 EUV tool capacity for 2027 represents a bottleneck

to demand, management has already indicated (at our conference) there is scope to increase that ceiling with “creativity”. Whilst

numbers are clearly on the rise for EUV tool capacity, I don’t expect ASML to provide concrete 2027 targets on Wednesday.

Instead, I think management will seek to steer investors towards a capacity outcome above 90 tools without committing to a 100+

tool target, which would be consistent with the company’s typically conservative approach to guidance. The key question for the

stock is whether that level of commentary is ENOUGH for the stock to work given elevated investor expectations. The fear

becomes a rinse and repeat of the last 6 months where buyside expectations become too aggressive and run away which leaves a

crowded stock struggling to perform. However, following a period of underperformance versus US peers and a volatile start to the

quarter for the broader semiconductor sector, this provides some safety net. The prevailing view remains that for ’28, sell-side

expectations remain far below buyside bulls. Investors continue to highlight multiple levers for upside: EUV volume growth,

ASP expansion driven by High-NA and system upgrades, and more importantly underappreciated strength in DUV/immersion

where capacity constraints and mix could drive both revenue and margin upside. See Sandeep’s preview HERE

WOLTERS (OW): FEEDBACK ON UPGRADE - Dan Kerven upgraded Wolters Kluwer to Overweight from Neutral last