Is the next telco competitor not in-country, but in-orbit?

Research evidence excerpt

Is the next telco competitor not in-country, but in-orbit?

Idea

July 13, 2026 02:44 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MASEAN Telecoms and Media | Asia Pacific Da Wei Lee

Equity Analyst

Is the next telco competitor not Dawei.Lee@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6510

in-country, but in-orbit?

We see rising concern around space-related developments

ASEAN Telecoms and Media

across broadband, mobile & data centers. Near-term, we see it as Asia Pacific

Industry View In-Line

complementary to gaps in terrestrial networks, but long-term

Please also see the following reports:

terminal-value may be up for debate.

Global Telecoms: Satellites - Unlocking Rural

Markets (4 Sep 2024)

Key Takeaways

ASEAN Telecoms and Media: Singapore's Space

Indonesia and the Philippines have the lowest broadband penetration in Asean, Odyssey (4 May 2026)

and thus the potentially largest TAM for Starlink as its pricing improves

Direct-to-device: Globe Philippines is leading the wave with <US$2 2GB plans

(30-day validity) via partnership with Starlink; Globe's entry plan is Pp99 for

20GB (7-day)

Orbital data centers are not a 2026-28 EPS risk but could be a terminal-value risk

to the AI-data-center bull case.

For Asean Telcos, we see three waves of impact. Near term: collaboration and

rural coverage monetization, especially in archipelagic markets. Medium term:

direct-to-device/mobile becomes a regulatory and subscriber growth debate, not

just a technology debate. Longer term: orbital data centers and space-based

compute challenge the most bullish AI-infrastructure narratives, especially for telcos

trying to re-rate as data-center/AI proxies.

• Broadband - Indonesia & Philippines most at risk. TLKM in Indonesia and

PLDT in the Philippines had a higher proportion of broadband revenues as of