Domestic Box Office Market in 2026 1H

Research evidence excerpt

Domestic Box Office Market in 2026 1H

Update

July 13, 2026 02:32 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MServices / Leisure | Japan Akiho Toyama

Equity Analyst

Domestic Box Office Market in Akiho.Toyama@morganstanleymufg.comKatsumi Arai +81 3 6836-8405

Katsumi.Arai@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8918

2026 1H

Compared with 2025, when titles such as Demon Slayer and

multiple films with box office revenue of over ¥10bn were

released, the Jul-Dec 2026 domestic film lineup is softer, but Services / Leisure

there are still multiple major titles scheduled for release from Japan

Industry View In-Line

the summer.

Key Takeaways

We estimate that nationwide box office revenue in Jan–Jun 2026 decreased only

slightly vs. 2025.

Jul-Dec 2026 is expected to see a buildup of multiple major titles.

We believe the trend remains broadly on track for box office revenue of around

¥240-250bn over the full year.

Our estimates for nationwide box office revenue for Jan-Jun 2026, based on Toho’s

monthly theatrical business segment data and market share, suggest that Jun 2026

as a single month was weak compared with the Jun 2025, when Kokuho ("National

Treasure") was released, but that 1H overall was only slightly down YoY.

In 2H, Toy Story 5, released on Jul 3, has got off to a strong start, with box office

revenue totaling just under ¥5bn in the first 10 days from opening day, according to

Kogyo Tsushinsha. While 2H will likely be softer than a year ago, when multiple

films exceeded ¥10bn in box office revenue, the lineup of titles expected to surpass

¥5bn appears larger than last year. We believe the trajectory is broadly toward full-

year box office revenue of around ¥240-250bn, against over ¥270bn in 2025. In

addition, with major chain AEON Cinema having implemented price revisions