Retail: Earnings Outlook (April-June): Some buying interest in lagging domestic-demand stocks, including retail; recommend selecting stocks based on business conditions, catalysts

Research evidence excerpt

Retail: Earnings Outlook (April-June): Some buying interest in lagging domestic-demand stocks, including retail; recommend selecting stocks based on business conditions, catalysts

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

13 July 2026

Retail: Earnings Outlook (Apr-

June)

Some buying interest in lagging domestic-demand

stocks, including retail; recommend selecting

stocks based on business conditions, catalysts

• Subsector and individual stock preferences: Figure1 shows our current Japan Equity Research

preference ranking for subsectors and individual stocks. We make no changes

Retail

in this report. We recommend major global manufacturer-retailers. For

domestic-oriented companies, we recommend selective investment based on Dairo Murata AC

company-specific catalysts (e.g., progress on M&A strategies, medium-term (81-3) 6736 8620

dairo.murata@jpmorgan.com

plans, expansion of shareholder returns) and the relative strength of the AC Ami Terai

earnings outlook under current conditions. (81-3) 6736-8660

• Cautious stance on overall sector is appropriate: TOPIX has risen 15.1% ami.terai@jpmorgan.com

YTD through July 10, and the TOPIX Retail Trade Index has risen 1.5%. We Kazuha Matsuo

maintain a somewhat cautious stance on the overall sector and still think stock (81-3) 6736-8614

selection is key. kazuha.matsuo@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

• Business conditions from April: Monthly sales figures already released by

many retail companies show sales were strong in April–May for four main

reasons: (1) no impact from the Middle East conflict and higher crude oil

prices; (2) an easing of inflation (mainly rice prices), recovery in real wages,

and strong consumer sentiment; (3) good weather conditions, especially in