GQG Partners: 1H CY26 Preview: Flows re-accelerate and the 3Y performance gap keeps widening; defensive-hedge optionality holds us at Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

GQG Partners: 1H CY26 Preview: Flows re-accelerate and the 3Y performance gap keeps widening; defensive-hedge optionality holds us at Neutral

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

13 July 2026

GQG Partners

1H CY26 Preview: Flows re-accelerate and the 3Y Neutral

performance gap keeps widening; defensive-hedge GQG.AX, GQG AU

optionality holds us at Neutral Price (13 Jul 26):A$1.43

▼Price Target (Jun-27):A$1.60

Prior (Jun-27):A$1.70

GQG’s Jun-26 FUM update confirmed a soft finish to the half, with 30 Jun-26 FUM

of US$156.0bn, down from US$163.3bn at the end of May-26, on June net Insurance and Diversified Financials

outflows of -US$3.2bn and negative investment performance of -US$4.1bn. For Siddharth Parameswaran AC

the half, FUM fell 4.8% from the US$163.9bn opening, as -US$15.1bn of net (61-2) 9003-8629

outflows were only partially offset by +US$7.2bn of positive performance. We siddharth.x.parameswaran@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

have cut FY26E/FY27E diluted EPS by 1.6%/2.3% to reflect the lower exit FUM.

Rishi S PariharToday’s update showed a re-acceleration in outflows back towards the pace seen

(91-22) 6157-3775

in the first two months of the year which is the key concern. Our stance is rishi.parihar@jpmchase.com

unchanged. The accumulated under-performance poses a meaningful risk to flows. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

However, the high dividend payouts and concentrated defensive positioning do Tharan Jeyathasan

offer some protection in bearish markets, as was evidenced in the mid-months of (61-2) 9003-6098

1HCY26 which saw strong monthly outperformance and improved flows amid tharan.jeyathasan@jpmorgan.com

market decline during the Middle East conflict. At current valuations, we rate GQG J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited