JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

Research evidence excerpt

JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

13 July 2026

Emerging Markets Corporate

Strategy

Yang-Myung Hong AC

(1-212) 834-4274

ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

The US-Iran conflict came to the forefront again last week as news of strikes

Alisa Meyers

and attacks on ships in the Strait put into question the ceasefire deal, but credit

(1-212) 834-9151

spreads were overall well behaved as rates rose. Oil prices rebounded 6-7% to alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

the mid to high $70s/bbl as traffic through the Strait has likely fallen, though J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

another factor is the tightness in product prices due to disruptions in Russia refining Dhawal U Mehta

capacity (link). Markets seemed unfazed overall as the 7-8bp rise in UST yields (91-22) 6157 3779

was partially offset by spread tightening and equities were balanced with small dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

gains in DM and losses in MSCI EM mainly driven by the tech sector. EM J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

corporates outperformed other credit asset classes last week as CEMBI BD spread

tightened -5bp to 159bp to offset most of the rate move and post marginally

negative weekly return of -0.05%.

The geopolitical tensions are likely to be an ongoing feature until there is a

permanent resolution, but we think CEMBI spreads are likely to remain

stable towards the tight end of the historical range. Unless the US-Iran conflict

escalates to or beyond the peak level seen during the initial phase and leads oil

prices to spike to $150/bbl and beyond, the supportive backdrop is likely to keep

spreads grounded with a robust macro environment, strong corporate earnings

growth, and reasonably favorable technicals. Amidst the compression in overall