My 2c on Financials

Research evidence excerpt

My 2c on Financials

Rob O'Dwyer - Specialist Sales - US Financials AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nrob.odwyer@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 13 July 2026

Rob O’Dwyer

+1 2126222673

rob.odwyer@jpmorgan.com

Key Highlights

• Consumer Finance Preview + AXP Upgrade to OW

• Insurance Broker Preview

Morning – banks earnings are the focus this week clearly but ahead of that a few bits from the consumer finance (Rick also

upgrading AXP into earnings) and the insurance teams this morning.

Consumer Finance + AXP Upgrade

Click here for the full note

The overarching theme for consumer finance stocks is a bifurcation between more insulated consumers (premium/affluent) and

more exposed consumers (non-prime/lower-income), driven by with energy headwinds, a cooling labor market and more hawkish

Fed all underlining the K-shaped economy. That said, Consumer Finance is a broad church and encompasses lots of different sub-

sectors with varying degrees of enthusiasm in Rick’s eyes:

• Selective enthusiasm for the Card Issuers: Favor premium (AXP OW, COF OW); cautious on non-prime (SYF N)

• Constructive auto finance: High used-vehicle values → low loss severities, though affordability caps originations

• Opportunistic mortgage insurance: Strong persistency + HPA, but valuations still price bull case

• Neutral mortgage originators: ~6.5% rates cap refi/purchase; offsets $200B Fannie/Freddie MBS

• Cautious student lending: Grad PLUS lane opening but near-term credit + AI/job-market secular risk

• Cautious on the underbanked: Energy headwind > tax-refund tailwind, though limited valuation downside

On the AXP upgrade specifically, Rick believes that there is a seem of valuation here that makes the risk-reward

attractive.