J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

13 July 2026

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning

Intelligence

Our bearish view on rates and full valuations in the

wings of the curve, suggest paring risk. 1H26 Liquidity

review. State fiscal conditions.

Securitized Products & Public

Finance Municipals Strategy

Peter DeGroot AC

(1-212) 834-7293

peter.degroot@jpmorgan.com

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– Our rates team sees parallels between today and the late-1990s, implying

upside risk to UST rates if the Fed hikes more than once. However, with

front-end yields near local highs and the next jobs report four weeks away, they

prefer 10s/30s flatteners over outright duration shorts as a lower-beta,

relative-value expression of higher yields.

– This week’s tax-exempt calendar looks manageable at $11bn (vs. $14.2bn

last year), with solid reinvestment and still-strong inflows keeping investors

well funded. The negotiated calendar is headlined by a +$2bn deal expected

to tap solid demand for lower investment grade bonds, while the concentration

of the competitive calendar in just one name ($2.4bn) could require market