Rakuten Group (4755): Down to Neutral; awaiting the benefits of increased mobile investment, AI use and fintech reorganization

Research evidence excerpt

Rakuten Group (4755): Down to Neutral; awaiting the benefits of increased mobile investment, AI use and fintech reorganization

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

13 July 2026

Rakuten Group (4755) ▼Neutral

Previous: Overweight

Down to Neutral; awaiting the benefits of increased 4755.T, 4755 JP

Price (13 Jul 26):¥798

mobile investment, AI use and fintech reorganization ▼Price Target (Dec-27):¥880

Prior (Dec-26):¥1,190

We update our earnings estimates from FY2027, mainly for the securities business, Japan Equity Research

but lower our non-GAAP operating profit estimates for the mobile business. We

Games, Internet, Services

change the time horizon for our price target to December 2027 from December

2026, lower our price target to ¥880 from ¥1,190, and downgrade our rating to Junko Yamamura AC

Neutral from Overweight. We have long expected (1) growth in mobile business (81-3) 6736-8644

junko.yamamura@jpmorgan.com

net additions due to price hikes by competitors; (2) a decline in credit risk due to

Ryo Nakagawa

financial improvement; and (3) an expansion of the Rakuten ecosystem, including (81-3) 6736-8643

the fintech business. While progress in these areas has generally been in line with ryo.nakagawa@jpmorgan.com

our view, conditions have recently changed significantly. In particular, we JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

currently see uncertainty related to (a) the investment roadmap to reach 20 million

MNO subscribers in the mobile business; (b) the benefits of AI use; and (c) the

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

speed for generating synergies from fintech reorganization. While we have

Prev Cur Δ

expectations for future upside potential, we first adopt a wait-and-see stance. Adj. EPS - 26E (¥) (10.95) 2.90 126.5%

Adj. EPS - 27E (¥) 19.82 29.26 47.7%