EMEA Metals & Mining: Weekly wrap: Q2 previews, cost inflation vs valuation support in Mining, turning constructive on Steel; upgrade ANTO to OW

Research evidence excerpt

EMEA Metals & Mining: Weekly wrap: Q2 previews, cost inflation vs valuation support in Mining, turning constructive on Steel; upgrade ANTO to OW

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

13 July 2026

EMEA Metals & Mining

Weekly wrap: Q2 previews, cost inflation vs valuation

support in Mining, turning constructive on Steel;

upgrade ANTO to OW

We provide updated valuation and commodity price scenario analysis across our European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACEMEA Mining & Steel coverage (link). Dominic O'Kane

(44-20) 7742-6729

The MSCI Europe M&M Index is -4% WoW (for week ended 10th July) vs MSCI dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

Europe -2%. Commodities were broadly flat: Copper +1% WoW at ~$13,500/t, J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Iron ore +1% at ~$100/t & Aluminium +4% to $3,200/t. Iron ore is -5% since June; Patrick Jones

we attribute this to weak China steel demand –June/July China reported steel (44-20) 7742-5964

patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

output has tracked at the bottom end of the five-year range (link). This week, news J.P. Morgan Securities plc

reports indicate that workers at BHP Group’s Port Hedland iron ore terminal in

Anna Antonova, CFA

Western Australia will stage an eight-hour strike on 16 July (link) and China’s (971) 4428-1766

CMRG is extending curbs on the purchase of Fortescue’s iron ore products (link). anna.antonova@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

We recently published our Q2 earnings previews. Within diversified miners, we Varun Bhattad

expect 1) cost-inflation-driven earnings disappointments, with 2026 US$ cost (91-22) 6157-5027

bases ~5-10% higher vs pre-conflict and upside risk to most Miners' 2026 cost varun.bhattad@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

guidance; 2) fluid geopolitical and commodity price risks, with valuation support