Citi‘s Most Read – Pan Asia

Research evidence excerpt

Citi‘s Most Read – Pan Asia

Roundup |

Citi's Most Read - Pan Asia

July 6 - July 12 13 Jul 2026 05:53:33 ET

ACMacro/Strategy | Sector/Stock Citi Asia Research

+852-2501-2751

This report presents our most-read research reports over the last 7 days, ordered

based on readership for each of the sections below.

Macro/Strategy

China Economics - Austerity Now, Acceleration Later?

An underappreciated driver of the sharp 26Q2 slowdown is a de facto fiscal

austerity. Central and local governments are each contributing, but through

distinct channels: the central government has collected larger-than-usual

revenues even while running ahead of the pace observed in recent years in

expenditures; local governments are pressured by falling land sales, debt

constraints, and a lack of high-quality projects, limiting their ability and

willingness to stimulate via traditional means. Our base case is for this austerity to

reverse in 26H2 as fiscal deployment accelerates, driving a mild rebound. We don’t

expect a mid-year budget revision; instead, long-term fiscal reforms addressing

central-local imbalances and redistribution issues in the AI era are the key themes

to watch.

Xiangrong Yu | Xinyu Ji

Broad fiscal deficit declined in Jan-May in a de Expenditure seemingly follows a pecking order

facto austerity of social security > tech & education >

infrastructure

12M rolling Actual Broad Government Deficit 2026 12MMA, Budgetary Fiscal Expenditure

10 Sum, % of Estimate 20 %YoY

GDP

8 15

-5

0 -10

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 21 22 23 24 25 26

Broad Government Deficit (Budget + Funds) Social Security Tech & Education Infrastructure Related

Japan FX - A simple calculation for Japanese equity strength and JPY weakness