The Point for North America

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for North America

Point |

Monday, 13 July 2026

Morning Call Highlights | Company | Industry | Economics & Strategy | Key Rating and Target Price

Changes

Morning Call Highlights Must Read

PULSE Monitor - Threading The Needle North America - Road Ahead 2H26

Earnings season kicks off next week. Positive revision data continues to support

our expectations for solid reporting season, with a normal positive surprise

outcome. Yet, we need to stay wary that with strong revisions headed into reports,

expectations are also high. Expect management commentary that is incrementally

more constructive as the Iran-triggered oil price backdrop is quite different than a

quarter ago. All told, we expect earnings results to support our broadening

playbook for Q3. At the same time, the PULSE chart showing S&P 500 correlation

to economic data surprises is approaching multiyear negative levels. Inflation

concerns, with resultant Fed tightening, remain an ongoing macro issue to be

balanced with Q2 reporting micro considerations. So, the needle to thread is

expectations for solid earnings reports but with macro data that takes the edge off

of inflation concerns such that the market gradually prices out Fed rate hikes. Hot

summer anyone?

Scott T Chronert | Drew Pettit | Patrick Galvin, CFA

Global Equity Quarterly - Back to the Broadening Debate

Global equities have climbed c10% YTD, though leadership has been concentrated

into Tech. With geopolitical risks easing (until recently) and signs of rotation away

from crowded AI trades, many of our conversations are returning to the likelihood

of “broadening” performance in 2H26. The success of broadening relies on: (1)

sustained cyclical improvement in macro/EPS revisions, and (2) a sustained pause

in Tech outperformance.