U.S. SMID FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. SMID FIRST TO MARKET

North America Equity Research

U.S. SMID First to Market 13 July 2026

Top Stories

Global Data Watch (Bruce Kasman)

It takes a licking and keeps on ticking

• Resilient consumer sustains momentum into midyear

• Energy inflation fades, but global core inflation sticky and high

• W. Europe perks up; Japan on strong but unsustainable path

• Next week: Gas slows US CPI and RS; Weak China GDP; BoK +25

US Retailing & Leisure (Matthew R. Boss, CPA)

Matt’s Macro Monitor: June Consumer Spending - Key Takes

We are providing an update to our monthly macro monitor notably on consumer spending trends in June leveraging our Chase

Credit/Debit Card data, recent fieldwork, and management access across both our Retailing and Leisure sectors. For

comparison and sequential changes – see our May, Mid-May, and April updates.

| Consumer Finance 2Q26 Preview (Richard Shane)

Nothing Is Easy: Rates Turn Hawkish as Conflict Reignites - Establishing 2027 PTs; Upgrading AXP

to OW, Rest Unchanged

The "pause, not peace" dynamic we contemplated in 1Q has re-emerged. The 60-day U.S./Iran memorandum of understanding

signed on June 18th, which had reopened the Strait of Hormuz and suspended hostilities, has broken down roughly midway

through, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire "over" in early July following renewed strikes. While indirect talks

continue via Qatari and Pakistani mediators, the situation is precarious, and the risk of further escalation is elevated.

Insurance Brokers 2Q26 Preview (Pablo S. Singzon)

Exercise Caution Chasing the Laggards

With P&C brokerage stocks showing signs of life in late 2Q26 as the broader market rotated into financials, we continue to like

AON (Overweight) and MRSH (Overweight).