CoTD: A Look Upstream

Research evidence excerpt

CoTD: A Look Upstream

Idea

July 13, 2026 10:45 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMulti-Industry | North America Christopher Snyder, CFA

Equity Analyst

CoTD: A Look Upstream Chris.Snyder@morganstanley.comBrandon Knutson +1 212 761-4470

Brandon.Knutson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4168

Chart of the Day (CoTD) highlights charts that tie into latest Toby Okwara

investor conversations, are timely for the macro + company EquityToby.Okwara@morganstanley.comAnalyst +1 212 761-1693

events, or just ones that we find interesting. Christine Yao

Research Associate

Christine.Yao@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4193

Multi-Industry

Exhibit 1: Delta Electronic Monthly Sales: As a leading Asian component North America

provider, Delta sits upstream vs our US OEMs in the supply chain and thus is a Industry View Attractive

useful leading indicator. Sales have accelerated exiting Q2 due to outsized Data

Center + Automation exposure. Broader short-cycle indicators have pointed to

deceleration in June on less favorable end market exposure.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Company Reports

Our call for a 2026 short-cycle inflection (Layering in Cyclical Torque) + broad Q2

upside (link) is now accepted by the market w/ US Industrials trading at a near 2

SDEV premium vs history, signaling positive revisions are needed to drive further

upside (Equities Need Revisions). For this reason, we think the focus during Q2 EPS

will be on 2H momentum w/ the market favoring those positioned for sustained

strength into 2027 (+ve ROK, RAL, ETN, AME, TT). To better gauge leading edge

momentum as 2H kicks off, we look to upstream leading indicators - while these

metrics point to risk of deceleration in June at a macro level, we see bifurcation

under the surface w/ clear pockets of strength.