EM FX

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A N

laoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com EM FX Daily Report - 13th July 2026

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 13 July 2026

HUF Escalation over the weekend as US strikes Iran after Iran declare the Strait of Hormuz closed

again, seeing EURHUF hit a high of 357.90 this morning. It has not been easy holding onto

long HUF since Trump declared the cease fire over last Wednesday, and whilst the playbook

this year has tended to be to fade these ramp up in tensions, it still remains a nervy backdrop.

That being said it has been encouraging we have come off the highs relatively quickly, and we

did also see HFs and RM fade the move towards 360 last week. We also added some fresh cash

shorts up there, although we are managing it more actively given the ramp up in tensions.

CZK Fresh US/Iran escalation over the weekend has given oil prices a leg up, although FX has thus

far been more contained compared to Wednesday. Regardless, we think it’s worth holding some

hedges as geopolitical risks become more pronounced. PLN is the preferred short within CE3

following Glapinski’s dovish presser, and staying sidelined in CZK in the absence of fresh

catalysts. The domestic calendar is light this week, so EURCZK will take its cue from US CPI

and developments in the Middle East. Flow-wise, the main account types were better sellers of

the koruna on Friday.

RON Quiet trading in a 5.2325/50 range.

ILS Spot usd/ils higher this morning as the pattern of strike and counter strike in the Middle East

continues to muddy the situation over Hormuz. Oil, core rates and the dollar all higher

correspondingly. All very repetitive this cycle of risk on/risk off. At least I was correct in my

advice to pick usd up ahead of 3.0000.