Sales & Trading

Research evidence excerpt

Sales & Trading

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 13 July 2026

G10 FX

EUR No surprise that most focus will be on the additional strikes over the weekend and the fact that

we are moving further away from the ceasefire state despite Trump maintaining that the Strait

remains open. Not sure where that leaves us in G10 given USD length is now more prevalent, as

we saw last week it is the positioning in EM that is much more sensitive as the relaxed Summer

of carry view gets called further into question. I think the more important events for the USD

GBP this week will be Fed speak and the June price data starting with CPI tomorrow, on the former

we have a raft of speakers due before the start of the Fed blackout on Saturday as the market

tries to fit the dots to the voters Waller kicks things off after London leaves today and the

Humphrey-Hawkins tomorrow will see Warsh testify. Broadly neutral in the USD for now and

no change in EUR view as we struggle to get away from 1.14, still have a bearish bias but would

be looking to sell rallies into the 1.15 handle using the 200d as a risk point (1.1650), 1.1340

remains key support. Flow wise the impressive SHF sell streak continues to 13 while other

sectors remain mixed.

Little to add to the GBP picture as we still await more meat on the bones of Burnham’s blueprint

and cabinet picks, I am still of the opinion that the ‘he is not so bad’ impulse is well in the price

now and it makes sense to start looking the other way tactically especially as the oil impulse

could impact gilts more and cause some jitters. Long a little EURGBP here, SHF extend their