Daiwa Securities Group: 8601.T, 8601.JP | EQUITY: JAPAN INSURANCE & DIVERSIFIED FINANCIALS

Research evidence excerpt

Daiwa Securities Group: 8601.T, 8601.JP | EQUITY: JAPAN INSURANCE & DIVERSIFIED FINANCIALS

Global Markets Research

9 July 2026Daiwa Securities Group

8601.T 8601 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN INSURANCE & DIVERSIFIED FINANCIALS

RatingStrong earnings performance is already

Remains Neutralconsensus view

Target price

We raise forecasts, next point of focus likely to be on better earnings Increased from 1,450 JPY 1,700

momentum in wholesale

Closing price JPY 1,777.5We retain Neutral rating at target price of ¥1,700 8 July 2026

We raise our earnings forecasts for Daiwa Securities Group for 27/3 Q1 onwards in light of

Implied upside -4.4%market conditions in Q1. That said, these upward revisions are primarily due to market

factors that have already been reflected in recent share price rises to a certain extent, and

we accordingly retain our Neutral rating. We raise our target price to ¥1,700 not only to

reflect the revisions to our earnings forecasts but also a hike in our fair-value P/E on 27/3

Relative performance chartforecasts from 11.0x to 11.5x in view of the rise in sector share price multiples. With strong

earnings being the consensus view, we think the focus will now be on synergies with Orix

Bank following the agreement to acquire it and an increase in earnings momentum in

wholesale operations, which have been underperforming rivals.

We raise forecasts, think profits will exceed final-year 27/3 targets in medium-term

plan

We raise our 27/3 forecast for profits attributable to owners of the parent from ¥179.0bn

to ¥200.0bn (up 14% y-y). We raise our end-27/3 TOPIX forecast from 4,050pt to 4,250pt

and hike our profit forecasts primarily for the wealth management segment and wholesale

operations. We raise our ordinary profit forecast from ¥273.7bn to ¥295.1bn (up 26%),