China consumer: CPI moderates in June

Research evidence excerpt

China consumer: CPI moderates in June

Global Markets Research

9 July 2026China consumer

EQUITY: CONSUMER RELATED

CPI moderates in June Research Analysts

China Consumer Related

Softness of the consumption sector persists Jizhoujizhou.dong@nomura.comDong, CFA - NIHK

+852 2252 1554

China’s CPI remained sluggish in June Summer Qian - NIHK

On 9 July, China’s consumer price index (CPI) posted a 1.0% y-y growth in June (source: summer.qian@nomura.com

National Bureau of Statistics), which slowed further from the 1.2% y-y increase in May +852 2252 6220

and was slightly below the Wind consensus estimate of 1.1% y-y growth. On a month-

month basis, CPI contracted by 0.3% in June in comparison to the 0.1% decline in May,

indicating persistent softness of the consumption sector. We believe the moderation of

CPI inflation in June was mainly due to: 1) shifts in the global geopolitical landscape that

resulted in subdued inflation in oil and gold prices; and 2) unfavourable weather

conditions that limited consumers’ activities. Meanwhile, producer price index (PPI) data

was largely on track in June, rising further to 4.1% y-y in June from 3.9% y-y in May, in

line with the Wind consensus of a 4.1% y-y increase.

High-level consumption-related policies released

With the overall consumption sentiment being weak, certain high-level consumption-

related policies were recently released. Specifically, the Ministry of Commerce and eight

other departments jointly issued several opinions on the accelerating innovative

development of the retail industry (on 9 July, link):

• The overall goal: China will establish a modern retail system characterized by rational

spatial layout, high-quality supply, diverse formats, intelligent and convenient

services, and orderly competition by 2030.