Japan banking sector monthly: July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Japan banking sector monthly: July 2026

Global Markets Research

Japan banking sector monthly: July 2026 9 July 2026

EQUITY: JAPAN BANKS

Solid performance by bank stocks with support Research Analysts

from BOJ policy and correction in AI stocks Japan banks Ken Takamiya - NSC

ken.takamiya@nomura.com

Bank stocks outperformed by more than 6% over past month +81 3 6703 1140

Investment perspective

Bank stocks rose in the first half of June, outperforming the TOPIX ahead of the expected

interest rate hike at the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) on 16 June. When the BOJ

did in fact decide to raise the policy interest rate to 1% at the 16 June meeting, bank

stocks initially strengthened after the announcement but then went on to soften somewhat

in the second half of June as investors sold to lock in profits. However, the Summary of

Opinions, released by the BOJ on 24 June, was noticeably more hawkish than in April,

stoking expectations for another BOJ rate hike and acting as a catalyst for a rebound.

When word emerged that the government's draft of the Basic Policy on Economic and

Fiscal Management and Reform (Basic Policy) stated that appropriate management of

monetary policy by the BOJ was "extremely important", market participants became

mindful of the risk of the BOJ falling behind the curve. Despite a temporary drop in US

long-term interest rates following weak US employment data (released 2 July), Japanese

government bond yields rose above 2.8% in early July (the so-called "Basic Policy

shock"). The government's stance, which could be interpreted as the administration trying

to exert influence on further rate hikes, initially weighed on bank stocks, which had been

trending upward since June. However, bank stocks performed generally solidly through