China: CPI inflation retreated while PPI inflation climbed in June

Research evidence excerpt

China: CPI inflation retreated while PPI inflation climbed in June

Global Markets Research

9 July 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia ex-Japan

Research AnalystsChina: CPI inflation retreated while PPI inflation

Asia Economicsclimbed in June

Hannah Liu - NIHK

CPI inflation slowed to 1.0% y-o-y in June from 1.2% in May, slightly missing expectations hannah.liu@nomura.com

(Consensus: 1.1%; Nomura: 1.2%). The decline in CPI inflation was led by external forces. +852 2252 1082

Global oil and gold prices, which feed into the energy and core components of the CPI Jing Wang - NIHK

basket, retreated notably in June. According to the NBS, the combined boost from oil and jing.wang@nomura.com

gold to headline CPI inflation dropped by 0.23pp, declining to 0.60pp in June from 0.83pp +852 2252 1011

y-o-y in May. This suggests that, excluding the impact of oil and gold, underlying CPI Harrington Zhang - NIHK

inflation remained largely stable at around 0.4% y-o-y. harrington.zhang@nomura.com

PPI inflation climbed to 4.1% y-o-y in June from 3.9% in May, in line with expectations +852 2252 2057

(Consensus: 4.1%; Nomura: 4.0%). The rise was largely driven by a low base effect, while Ting Lu - NIHK

sequential PPI inflation turned negative amid falling global oil prices. In our sectoral ting.lu@nomura.com

contribution breakdown, we estimate that oil-related sectors, which account for around +852 2252 1306

14% of the PPI basket, boosted headline PPI inflation by 1.6pp in June, down from a

1.9pp boost in May. Non-ferrous sectors contributed 1.7pp to headline inflation in June,

and chip-related tech manufacturing sectors contributed 0.4pp. Excluding the boost from

energy and AI-related materials, we estimate underlying PPI inflation in June is around

0.6% y-o-y.