Malaysia palm oil: Rising inventory to keep CPO prices in check Quick Note

Research evidence excerpt

Malaysia palm oil: Rising inventory to keep CPO prices in check Quick Note

Global Markets Research

10 July 2026Malaysia palm oil

EQUITY: AGRI-RELATED

Rising inventory to keep CPO prices in check Research Analysts

ASEAN Agri-Related

Raghavendra Divekar, CFA - NSMQuick Note raghavendra.divekar@nomura.com

+603 2027 6893

Inventory levels rise on higher production, weaker-than-expected exports

Research AssociatesOn 10 July 2026, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) released palm oil statistics for June

2026. Palm oil inventory (crude + processed) rose 4.8% m-m to 2.54mn MT in June, 2.6% ASEAN Agri-Related

above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 2.48mn MT. This marks the third straight Amol Dongre - NSFSPL

increase in inventory levels, with the inventory level now 33% above the average level. The

increase came largely from processed palm oil, the inventory of which rose 5.9% m-m, while

crude palm oil (CPO) inventory also rose 3.8% m-m. CPO production rose 8.1% m-m to

1.64mn MT, coming in 0.7% lower than our estimate of 1.65mn MT and 0.5% higher than

the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1.63mn MT. For July, we expect production to

continue its rise m-m to ~1.70mn MT. Along with the higher production, the overall increase in

inventory levels was largely due to only a 6.2% m-m increase in exports to 1.20mn MT in

June, coming in 5.2% lower than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1.27mn MT.

Going forward, we expect CPO exports to remain stable m-m at 1.20-1.25mn MT and, overall,

we expect July inventory levels to rise m-m to ~2.65mn MT. Spot CPO prices have risen

<1% over the past month to MYR4,483/MT, over concerns about El Niño and with Indonesia

rolling out its B50 biodiesel mandate. With the conflict in West Asia re-starting and with